The Witness Chronicles, October, 1, 2024
Regional war in the Middle East and the US election
How Will a Regional War in the Middle East Affect the Election Here?
A volatile and unpredictable event we’ve seen coming
I’ve been watching coverage this afternoon of Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, primarily targeting Tel Aviv. After the initial barrage, Iran issued a statement indicating the strike was over. Now the world waits for Bibi Netanyahu’s response.
It appears that most if not all of the missiles were stopped by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system and various US forces in the air and possibly on the ground in neighboring states. There was also a terrorist attack on a train near Tel Aviv that killed four Israelis. The gunmen were also killed.
It’s been apparent that a war has been taking place since the terrorist attack on Israel a year ago by Hamas and it is a war on multiple fronts that has now escalated into Lebanon, and likely we will see attacks directly on Iran.
A giant mess, as all wars are and one that will impact next month’s US presidential election. Trump, predictably, claimed today that this would have never happened if he was President, offering as usual, no proof. Tonight we will see this topic possibly take over the Vice Presidential debate.
Both candidates are military veterans. Vance served in the Middle East and Afghanistan as a military journalist, basically a propagandist for the Army. Walz was in the National Guard for 20+ years but did not see combat. Neither of them have hands on foreign policy experience.
So we will probably see a lot of statements about the relative foreign policy achievements of Trump and Harris. As an ex-president, Trump obviously has more experience but his track record, especially regarding Iran, is terrible and his cozy relationship with dictators like Putin and Hungary’s Orban didn’t stop a war from developing in Ukraine.
He also claims he can end that war on his first day in office, again with no proof or evidence.
Harris’s experience is more as a diplomatic envoy for President Biden, rather than a decision maker. But she has worked with Biden in his incredibly successful campaign to unite and strengthen NATO after Trump basically tried to destroy it. History will view that reunification in Europe as a significant achievement that has so far contained Putin.
I suspect this debate will be ugly with Vance willing to say anything, including blatant lying, about every topic. But I, like most Americans, will be watching to get a feel for who and what Walz is, given that he could find himself President unexpectedly. I really don’t know what to expect from him.
Is the debate important? Probably not, compared to the two presidential debates which each changed the equation overnight. But in the context of today’s events in Israel we may see a confrontation that could get heated, especially if Vance decides to lie outright about Trump’s achievements.
My guess is that very few viewers will tune in, especially not for the entire debate. VP choices do not determine elections historically and many of us would be challenged to even remember most of the candidates in the role.
Meanwhile, the sitting President and Vice President are at work, monitoring a developing war that very much impacts us here in the US. We have thousands of American service members and huge military resources in the region. Biden and Harris are dealing with the enormous reality of that today, eclipsing the value and impact of tonight’s debate.
It’s life and death vs politics, not even very important politics, until you consider that if Trump becomes President and dies or is incapacitated while in office, Vance would, will very little experience become President, an event I find extremely scary. So I will be watching if I can stand it.
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Thanks, Martin. Like you, I wasn’t sure I would last the duration of the debate. After fifteen minutes my wife was done. I lasted another fifteen before I too bailed. It’s as you said. One can only stomach lies, misrepresentation, fabulism, and the patina of competence for so long without wanting to pick up some handy solid object and wing it at the TV screen. These televised debates are an unfortunate part of our political process since the first one back in 1960. I just finished writing an extensive Review of the experience on another writer’s Substack blog (Lucian K. Truscott IV), so I will not go into it here. Suffice to say, Low Information Voters who make up the hard-core base of tRump/Vance supporters are going to support their guy(s) no matter what because they don’t have the mental bandwidth to parse the bullshit in order to winnow the wheat from the chaff. I’m just hoping that those Republicans who are thoughtful, reflective, and even mildly uncomfortable with what a second tRump administration portends will disassociate themselves from the MAGA cult and go with Harris/Walz as well as Vote Dem in down-ticket races that decide the fate of Congress and the Senate.
I will end with recommending the documentary “UNTRUTH: The Psychology of Trumpism”. It was made by the same folks who made the terrific 2020 doc. “UNFIT: The Psychology of Donald Trump”
Do the Three Monkeys when it's Vance's turn