The Witness Chronicles, March 27, 2024
A momentum shift?
Election Momentum Change: Is This the Week?
Things are piling up in Biden’s favor
Humans are very good at detecting patterns in apparent randomness. But this pattern recognition ability often finds what it is looking for, not what is really there. But this morning while scanning a wide range of news sources I’m seeing a definite shift in the political patterns, and I don’t think it is my bias at work.
The Associated Press reports that the Trump campaign has virtually no operations in several key states including Pennsylvania and Michigan and appears to have dismantled efforts to reach out to minority voters. This may reflect the impact of the Trump-controlled Republican National Committee (RNC) firing over sixty key staffers and replacing them with Trump loyalists who likely have little campaign experience.
Joe Biden, post State of the Union, has been on the road and playing attack dog. He is raising money at double the rate of the Trump campaign as it appears small donors are recoiling at their money going to pay his legal bills. Trump has only done one rally recently and now will spend 4 days a week in court, starting April 15, in a trial that could go for six to eight weeks, leaving little time for campaigning.
Trump continues his bizarre behavior and questionable choices. This week he compared himself to Jesus and then started selling $60 bibles, stating the Bible is his favorite book, though he can’t quote anything from it. First Trump superhero cards, then golden sneakers, and now bibles.
The Stormy Daniels coverup trial may be considered the least threatening of the three legal trials he faces, but it will bring many of his questionable or outright awful practices front and center for weeks. It will feature testimony from both porn star Daniels and the Playboy cover model McDougal who was also paid off to cover up an affair.
We often hear about his strong support among evangelical Christians and the Bible sales may be a schtick to beef up that support. But the very Trump inability to stop saying things like the Jesus comparison and the very public reminders of his blatant philandering may peel off many of his more devout Christian followers.
In Alabama a special election to replace a corrupt Republican politician was won by a large margin, by a Democrat woman who ran on a strong pro-choice and pro-IVF platform. This is very bad news for the GOP as Alabama is a solidly red state and this proves the power of abortion as an issue for Democrats.
Trump did have some wins this week. An appellate court in NY reduced his required bond in his business corruption case from nearly $500 million to $175 million, gave him ten days to pay, and allowed him and his sons to continue running their businesses in the state during the appeal. But if he loses the appeal, as many expect, he will owe the total amount.
His Truth Social stock offering valued the company at $9 billion, for now, increasing his personal wealth, on paper, by billions. But he can sell stock for six months and by then it is highly likely the stock will tank. The company only brought in six million last quarter while losing $49 million. Not exactly stellar numbers.
On top of all this, polling is showing Biden gaining in multiple states for the first time in months. If you read me regularly you may know that I am not much of a polling fan, especially given the extreme division across the country, which likely limits voters’ willingness to reveal their hand this early in the game.
But nevertheless, those polls are good news for the Biden people. So, it seems, is his open battle with Netanyahu over the Israeli leader’s brutal war in Gaza and his impending invasion of the Rafah region where thousands more could die. It has taken Biden a long time to reassess his longtime support for Israel but Netanyahu’s defiance and unpopularity there have given Biden an opening for backing off and showing more support for Palestinians.
The Biden administration has begun an effort to go after major food companies for price fixing after the Covid crisis raised costs. As those costs went down after Covid, the allegations are that these producers kept prices inflated and saw record profits. These anti-inflation actions are one more bragging point for the President.
I’ve always thought Biden’s strategy was an incremental chipping away process while Trump’s behavior and legal problems gave voters more cause to stop supporting him. But like many Biden watchers, I was stunned by his ferocious State of the Union address and his powered-up campaign attacks.
You can see the extremely seasoned campaigner getting up to speed just as his opponent gets bogged down in a sordid trial for weeks. Why Trump is wasting his time as a Bible salesman is beyond me. I wonder who cooks this stuff up?
Is this a sea change? Too early to tell, but I’ll be watching for other signs of a shift. We can be sure there will be many and many unexpected developments. They’re coming fast and furiously these days, and Biden seems better positioned to take advantage of them.
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This is one of, if not the most positive piece I have read regarding the current situation with Trump and the election. Thank you. It is good to believe that the tide is turning or, perhaps, has already turned and is gaining strength. I will that your analysis is a correct one.
I am a fan of neither propaganda nor censorship. However, I feel that reporting and comment in this national crisis has predominantly had the effect of giving Trump the centre stage and that, even when in some cases it has included or been negative, it has only stirred up his supporters and increased despondency of those fearing his possible return to power.
In my view, it is pieces such as this, which offer informative information regarding the positions of both Trump and Biden and which do so in a fair and balanced way, that are most likely to strengthen Biden support and even, perhaps, win over some current Trump supporters Although I accept that many ignore realities, I do think that showing the relative achievements of each party and their implications, in simple and direct terms, is a positive way to counter the massive amount of bigoted or skewed misinformation and disinformation that circulates.
Thank you. Please keep this type of analysis going and to other readers, if you have the ability and understanding to join in, please do so. In my view, it is *not* 'fighting fire with fire' that will win the day but honesty and transparency and clear enunciation of motivation, intent, action and potential or probable effects, i.e. truth, in terms that even the relatively under or uneducated and most susceptible to false conditioning can understand.
Take care. Stay safe. ☮️
roger hawcroft
*Can't sell stock for six months, I believe.