The Witness Chronicles, March 6, 2024

More optimism?

Seventy Per Cent, the Big Number From Super Tuesday’s Primaries

A majority of Haley’s voters say they will vote for Biden

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

In this election it’s the hidden numbers that will make the difference, despite the terrible polling for Joe Biden. And Republicans who have not lost their souls are seriously worried about those numbers.

Haley is out, but she did a big favor for a lot of us on the side of democracy by finally going after the very obvious problems with Donald Trump. His bizarre signs of early onset dementia. His dismal finances. His mounting legal problems. And his threats to democracy itself.

Not to mention his serial losing.

Those sober Republicans are trying to get Trump focused on running for re-election rather than going on tirades against all his perceived enemies. The man’s constant whining may have played well in a primary season he dominated, but it is going to be glaringly awful in a one to one with a ‘normal’ political rival, one who has actual achievements.

As for Biden, it looks like the gloves are finally going to come off this week with the pending State of the Union address. Biden needs to get the message out about the economy, which is booming, despite what a lot of people stubbornly think. His biggest problem is the news apathy of a lot of American voters.

One effect of Trump’s non-stop craziness is fatigue for all but his hard core followers. His Republican opponents in the primaries, notably Ron DeSantis, made a huge mistake by mollifying him instead of telling the truth about a truly disturbed and dangerous man. But DeSantis now looks like yet another delusional and out of touch has-been politician.

So, about that seventy percent. Exit polls asked Haley voters who they would vote for in the general election now that she is out, and seventy percent said they would either vote for Biden or against Trump. Given that Haley was capturing 30-40% of the Republican, and in some cases Independent, primary voters, this is very bad news for Trump.

But, and this is a big but, Biden must start hammering that complacent public with reality. Fortunately that reality is a lot of good news about jobs, the economy, and the markets. And there is a good possibility that the negatives, including border security and immigration, along with abortion rights, can be turned against Republicans because of their refusal to act or even listen to voters’ preferences.

Biden can legitimately claim to have the high ground on immigration due to Republican inaction, but he has to do so forcefully, over and over again, while taking every possible executive action to stop the flood. Trump can only talk and the more he talks right now, the worse he looks.

Meanwhile in Congress the Republicans have an even bigger problem and its source is within the Party itself. The Freedom Caucus in the House will keep stonewalling any signs of governing, despite the obvious negatives of doing so in an election year. Mitch McConnell’s impending resignation as Senate Minority leader will turn party members against each other in the battle to take his place.

Other cheery signs are the possible, even likely, chance that the GOP hardliners will shut the government down, which has always backfired on them. And the state of Republican finances at all levels, from Presidential campaign down to local politics, is dismal at best.

Trump’s handpicked candidates to run the Republican National Committee are doubling down on funneling whatever money there is towards his campaign, including his enormous legal bills, leaving little for all the other Republicans running across the country.

We might ask what a Trump win would look like if he soundly loses both Houses of Congress. After that happened during his first term, he essentially got nothing done, because he is incapable of working with other people. Bipartisan action has become a toxic concept in the Trump world.

I am cautiously optimistic about most of this stuff but only if the Democrats can find a way to hammer Trump with facts and achievements. Trump has few actual accomplishments and with his vaunted wealth turning out to be a house of cards, his credibility is being chipped away at, even before the criminal trials start.

Yes, SCOTUS has been giving him the delays he desperately needs, but their approval rating is around 18%, which must send some kind of message, if that is even possible. It says something that Trump’s only legal defense in case after case is to stall and delay. That’s another talking point for Democrats.

I’m a bit of an anti-pundit these days, probably because I hear so many of them making this claim or that and quoting polls as gospel, when they know full well that statistics are easily manipulated and most of us are skeptical about everything. So take my optimism with a grain of salt. But I am sticking with it, at least for now.

For those who despair, I offer this: At this stage in the election year there are more possible changes ahead than anyone can foresee, and any one of them could derail everything. The one I am watching is Trump’s mental state, which seems more frail every day as his problems pile up beyond imagining. If he loses it the Republicans will be left with nothing.

I told you I was an optimist.

~ I write The Grasshopper, a letter for creatives, The Witness Chronicles, a place for my articles on politics and climate, and The Remarkable, a recovery letter, about my addiction and reentry experience. All are weekly and free, however this is how I live and I strongly believe all writers and creatives should get paid, if we provide value. Your upgrade to a paid subscription helps make that happen. 

If you want to show support but don’t want to commit to a subscription, you can always buy me a coffee!

Believe me, it makes my day. M