The Witness Chronicles, March 23, 2024
The House in turmoil, Trump’s weaknesses
This is a twofer today because these pieces were written back to back and feel related to me. There is some crazy stuff going on right now and they are fluid stories. Who is in charge of the House? Does Trump have $500 million or not? What does it all mean? Lalalala…
A Different Kind of Rebellion in the House
It’s Republican and it’s not the Freedom Caucus
This one is open rebellion against the leadership of Donald Trump and Mike Johnson. This week Rep. Mike Gallagher announced he would leave on April 19th. He was expected to serve out his term through January. Rep. Ken Buck leaves today, and this leaves Johnson with a majority in name only.
When Buck announced his departure he said there were three more in the pipeline. Gallagher is number one, leaving two more possible resignations and leaving the Republicans completely out of control, especially with their own dissension in the ranks on the part of the obstructionist far right members.
The lead now is a gossamer thread that could disappear anytime as moderate and conservative Republicans, who want to govern rather than obstruct, fall on their swords rather than be lackeys for the former President. This is a radical form of protest that says just how far things are going wrong for the Party.
Yes, the House passed a budget bill today to keep the government open and sent it off to the Senate for their vote, which must take place before their two week Easter break (they passed it). Who gets two weeks off for Easter? Well, these numerous breaks to go home and campaign do serve as hard deadlines, which are the only way we seem to get important votes done.
But seeing men like Gallagher leave early, when the House majority is so feeble, has to be a huge blow for Speaker Johnson, who is already herding the cats* of the Freedom Caucus who, though they can’t get anything done, are great at getting media attention.
*not fair to cats
It is entirely possible that the GOP could lose their majority in the House before this year’s elections. Things happen, people get sick or have family emergencies, or more may decide they are fed up and leave.
Meanwhile, clueless egos like Marjorie Taylor Greene file to have Johnson withdrawn for working with Democrats to pass that budget resolution. It's a meaningless act because she qualified it as a ‘shot across the bow’ to warn him that his governing was not acceptable. She hedged her bets on that one, giving herself an out if it is unpopular.
If there is another departure and far right Republicans try to throw Johnson out, it is conceivable that Democrat Hakeem Jeffries could be elected Speaker. Cue chaos. Greene may not be capable of doing the math that leads to that.
Think about what is going on here. Greene and Johnson are cut from the same ultra-conservative, southern evangelical Christian government cloth, but Greene is a grandstander and Johnson pretends to be reasonable. They are both extremists and they are going after each other.
This is a huge issue for the Republican Party, aka the Trump Party, which learned from his playbook of going after his own people even more than Democrats. Why would they do this? Trump does it because for him being the slightest bit disloyal or independent marks you as an enemy. That means any member of his own party who shows gumption is going to get it, Trump-style.
But these early resignations are reasonable men and women saying, nope, I am not playing this game, even if it means quitting my job and possibly handing the majority to the Democrats. That seems new to me and there is not a damn thing Trump can do about it, other than call them names and threaten retribution.
It’s beautiful in its own way. And it is unlikely that any of them will suffer reputation-wise for doing what their conscience tells them, even when it means leaving a high post in government. Trump would probably be boiling over if he wasn’t already bursting blood vessels over his money problems.
We knew that this election year would be extremely unpredictable. But this is just beyond the beyond with major political stories coming out daily or more than daily. I write about it and my head is spinning just trying to understand the changing implications.
The problem with this onslaught is it is numbing unless you are a true news junkie. I am one but even my tolerance is stretched right now. It is no wonder that the average voter, who has enough on their plate with prices, fears, and living life, might simply check out of being an informed voter.
Three Things That Could Take Down Trump
Money, ego, and mental health
There is one action he took this week that may illustrate this possibility. He announced, counter to his lawyers’ legal claims, that he actually has $500 million in cash and will use it for his campaign.
A couple of inconvenient facts about this. First, Trump has contributed none of his own money to his campaigns, dating back to 2016. He may be close to a lucrative deal going public with his Truth Social media business, which could net him billions, except he can’t sell any stock for six months as part of the deal. Given that the company had only around $3 million in revenue last year it is very likely the stock will be near worthless by then. And, if Trump has money, it may be needed for operations within the Trump Organization.
Whew.
His deadline for paying or putting up a bond for his estimated $444 million fine for his civil suits is Monday, March 25. His attorneys’ have filed a request for more time or a reduction, saying over thirty bond companies have turned him down and he does not have the cash.
If this is true, and we will find out Monday, why would he claim otherwise? And if he has the money, why would he hang his lawyers out to dry like that? There is nothing to gain in either scenario. But this illustrates the fundamental issues voters face when seriously considering his candidacy.
Yes, I’m leaving out the MAGA crowd. He owns their souls through and through, but they cannot get him elected.
This statement about his finances, taken in context, shows us Trump’s flaws in black and white. First, it will keep the focus on his money problems which may undermine his entire campaign as they illustrate his lifelong false claims of being a financial genius.
Second, if he is undermining his legal team to bolster his ego by claiming he actually has the money, that ego has superseded any other consideration in his decision making process, if there is one. Nothing about this makes any sense. Why would you imply that you had lied to your own attorneys about something as big as this?
My theory is he simply could not stand the implication that he is broke, despite many indications that both he and his Party are close to it. Which leads to the third factor, his mental health.
These actions, however they turn out, are not the actions of a man thinking clearly. They are knee jerk responses without any strategy or long term purposes. Trump appears to be working entirely in real time, improvising as he goes, which requires sharp snap judgment skills and the ability to look ahead at consequences.
Nothing about that indicates those abilities. There is no logic, these statements could be self-destructive, and they seem to reinforce the many rumors about his cognitive abilities, based on his speech patterns and increasingly haywire actions.
Any normal person could be breaking down under the many things he faces right now, including near constant losing, a huge challenge to a narcissist ego, and actual prison time for any of the numerous felony charges he faces. Then there is the destruction of his business, which has always been his only real claim to fame.
I don’t know about you but I’d have a hard time focusing on things under those circumstances, much less running for the highest office in the land, at the same time. A crack up would be almost normal. Except there is nothing normal about this man.
This election has become the equivalent of a daytime soap opera for political junkies, except that this is not about who's screwing who on tv. It’s about the future of our democracy, which sounds hysterically melodramatic except for the fact that it is true.
Do we really want this man to be in charge of the largest military in the world and the economy of the United States, among many other other huge issues? He cannot even rein himself in when it comes to his own livelihood.
The logic here is solid. But does it matter? It appears, that for many on the right, the answer is no. And it is not just Trump. The House majority and it’s leadership is in tatters as Trump supporter Speaker Mike Johnson oversees an exodus of Republican talent leaving in disgust, and his own far right caucus seeking his forced exit.
It is entirely possible that the Republicans could lose their House majority before the election. Unlikely but not impossible.
One might ask, is delusion a contagious disease? Within the Republican Party it sure looks like that’s possible. And when a contagion strikes a group like that, who do you look to? Yup, their fearless leader.
A man who is unsuccessfully wrestling with his financial collapse, his out of control ego, and his sanity.
Here’s my monthly ask. Please consider financially supporting this newsletter, if you haven’t already. Coffees are appreciated (link below) and paid subscriptions always feel like validation, and in this election year, any positive reinforcement is appreciated!
Thanks, Martin Edic
~ I write The Grasshopper, a letter for creatives, The Witness Chronicles, a place for my articles on politics and climate, and The Remarkable, a recovery letter, about my addiction and reentry experience. All are weekly and free, however this is how I live and I strongly believe all writers and creatives should get paid, if we provide value. Your upgrade to a paid subscription helps make that happen.
If you want to show support but don’t want to commit to a subscription, you can always buy me a coffee!
Believe me, it makes my day. M