The Witness Chronicles, June 11, 2024

More chipping away at the former president and convicted felon

Photo by Grant Durr on Unsplash

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The Cumulative Effects of the Trump Felony Convictions

There are three major events in the next month that will add to them

After a speech in Vegas this past weekend, in which Trump’s teleprompter failed and he went off on a strange story about MIT, being on a boat, and sharks, don’t ask me why, we are seeing the effects of those convictions starting to chip away at his chances this year.

And at least three more significant events in the coming weeks promise to destabilize things more, if that is even possible. First there is the debate with Joe Biden near the end of June, which could be a defining event in the election, if it even takes place. Fox Trump Fan number one Sean Hannity has already suggested that Trump pass on it, based on the new GOP theory that Biden will be amped up on drugs.

That performance, which the Trump team scrambled to counter after Biden’s scathing and articulate performance at the State of the Union, obviously scared the bejeezus out of a party that was convincing themselves that their stories about Biden’s mental acuity were reality.

They didn’t really think this one through, because it gives Joe quid pro quo to ask for a cognitive test from Trump, which will not happen. This entire drug test story was fabricated out of nothing to give Trump an out after he quickly agreed to Biden’s terms for the debates.

My guess is it won’t happen because the timing is awful for the Trump campaign. A bad performance by their guy, on top of being convicted of 34 felonies, could send his numbers into a tailspin.

Then there is the sentencing on July 11th. This is going to be a bad look and Trump is not helping matters by continually violating the gag order which, btw, still stands. Judge Merchan, who has been unreasonably reasonable, may be fed up with the threats and character assassination of him and his family members. Jail time is not out. Unlikely but possible.

It occurred to me that if Trump is jailed, his access to a phone and the internet could be severely restricted, effectively shutting him up.

There is no way the sentencing makes his situation any better as it just piles on to the reality that he is a convicted crook.

Then, four days later we get the Republican Convention where the party will make him their candidate, having no other option and pretending that is a good thing. And the announcement of his running mate from the roster of eight candidates, all of whom have problems Dems can attack.

Then there is the constant parsing of various polling by the DC punditry looking for any indicators of change. Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post today broke down a poll that seems to take apart the Double Haters theory that says there are quantities of voters who hate both candidates.

That polling shows the hate is not evenly distributed, with more likely to choose Biden as the lesser of two evils. This interpretation says that dislike and aversion to Trump outweighs the discomfort with Biden’s age, which kind of makes sense to the optimist in me, though I still think the polling is mostly bullshit generated to provide the media with stories.

All of this represents a chipping away at Trump’s parity with Biden which is statistically a dead heat right now. Other incremental developments keep the chips flying. For example, we are seeing big box grocery retailers like Target and Walmart announcing they are reducing prices, possibly signaling a food price war which could end the gouging that has been hitting voter’s wallets.

Inflation and immigration are Biden’s big problems. One, inflation, is largely due to price gouging and excess profit taking by food producers and oil companies. The other, immigration, is a complete mess that can and should be blamed on both parties. That’s not getting fixed anytime soon.

The real question here comes down to how committed we are to maintaining our democracy and the rule of law. We know one candidate will destroy these pesky rules and lead a presidency devoted to revenge and bigotry, regardless of legality. Trump and his aides have made that clear over and over again.

Again, the optimist says that when push comes to shove, voters will choose the Constitution over chaos and dictatorship, although there’s been enough craziness unleashed over the past eight years that it is not a given.

Watch the next month's events. They are not insignificant and may show us a turning point in this year’s election. Unfortunately I cannot say which way that turn might take, because everything bad is good to an unfortunately large number of the noisier voting public.

~ I write The Grasshopper, an occasional letter on the creative life and it’s sister, mostly daily publication The Witness Chronicles, a place for my articles on politics and climate. They share a free and paid subscription. I also write The Remarkable, a recovery letter, about my addiction and reentry experience. I don’t paywall any content in these, however this is how I live and I strongly believe all writers and creatives should get paid, if we provide value. Your support with a paid subscription helps make that happen.

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