The Witness Chronicles, July 22, 2024
Waves of political speculation
Trolls, Polls, and Pundits, Ignore Them All
Biden just ended his campaign yesterday and no one knows anything
As I write this it has been less than 24 hours since Joe Biden, without warning, dropped out of the race to get re-elected. And, predictably, a torrent of ridiculous baloney is pouring out of the Republican Party, Trump himself, and pundits and polls.
Hey, folks, this is so new that not one of these things, especially polls, means anything. As voters we have barely had a minute to digest this change and to instantly form opinions about VP Kamala Harris, Biden’s endorsed successor, yet people are going on the record with this, that, or the other thing.
The Republican response can only be described as political panic. Somehow they agreed, across the board, that since Biden is not running, he must be incompetent to complete the six months left in his term. Mike Johnson, House Speaker, made the claim that it is illegal for Biden to quit the race.
I’m sorry but that is so wrong that it makes me once again wonder how stupid and intentionally uninformed the man is, despite being in a position of great power (which he has used to accomplish exactly nothing). But he was not alone.
Across the party leadership the call for Biden to quit resounded. This conveniently ignores the reality that if he did, Kamala Harris would become President, giving her a serious advantage in the race and a chance to show her actually governing. Duh.
That’s the trolls, and they are off and running with a stream of conspiracy theories including that this is some kind of coup by somebody, the deep state I guess. But what all this accomplishes is that the GOP has no plan for running against a younger but experienced candidate, be it Harris, Whitmer, or one of the other many competent Democrats.
They’re scared and they can’t hide it.
Then we come to the polls. The Washington Post pivoted from their daily average chart of Trump vs Biden polling to Trump vs. Harris, despite Harris not yet being the candidate, and the polls not reflecting the monumental change that just took place a few hours ago.
This is irresponsible journalism to say the least. I have not seen the Times’ Nate Silver weighing in but that self-satisfied oracle of the number crunchers will certainly tell us the truth we are too dumb to understand, as always.
If you think polls mean something, understand that they mean nothing immediately after an event like this. People need time to process their thoughts and to understand a new political reality. Even a week from now polling will still mean nothing because it will only reflect the opinions of people like me who pay too much attention to this stuff.
We barely know a Kamala Harris when she is not in the background of Joe Biden. This is true of all Vice Presidents, by intent. They were not elected to run the government except in emergencies. Their role is a shadow one until an event like this blasts them into the light.
It’s certain that Kamala Harris has been frantically preparing for this in the past few weeks as it became more and more apparent that Biden might step away. She gets to have some transition time now that it has happened and so do voters.
I will interject that she spoke briefly this morning about Joe Biden before honoring college athletes at a previously scheduled event. She looked and sounded relaxed and really seemed to enjoy herself. And she was extremely articulate, which makes a marked contrast to Trump. Honestly, she seemed liberated.
As for the punditry, last night the networks devoted hours to covering this event. That is what they do. But there really wasn’t much to say, so they brought in pundit after pundit to fill their Special Reports. Those pundits have been having a field day in the last few weeks as the events piled on. The debate, an assassination attempt, a VP pick by Trump, a National Party convention, and now this.
Now they face a month of ‘what will the Democrats do and how are the Republicans responding?’. It’s a good question. How will Trump react, where will the money go, what do the regular folks think?
The reality is everything about this election is fluid speculation, not being defined by either Party. And right now the trolls, polls, and pundits (including me) don’t know anything. So have a handful of salt ready. You’ll need it.
This is a reader supported newsletter. Please consider helping out by upgrading to a paid subscription or donating a small amount through Buy Me A Coffee, a site for small financial contributions. Thanks, ME