The Witness Chronicles, February 21, 2024

If Biden is Polling So Poorly, Why Is He Raising So Much Money?

Photo by Braden Collum on Unsplash

The RNC may be broke, and Biden is outraising them by 100%

Anyone who reads my opinions knows that I take poll results with a huge grain of salt, and I may not be alone. The ability to raise money is a direct indicator of sentiment in elections and Biden is knocking it out of the park.

These are not tiny donors, they are the big guys who don’t throw their money after losers. Given that his opponent is not only a loser but also spending huge amounts of election money on personal legal bills, I wonder if Republican donors are waiting and watching.

As the courts chip away at Trump, seemingly daily, my guess is the major donors on the right are watching how public support responds to those court decisions, especially the upcoming criminal trials. John Kasich, a Republican Trump defeated in 2016, is now claiming he is hearing that evangelicals are starting to question their loyalty to him.

They were willing to look away from his distinctively non-Biblical lifestyle as long as it promised to end Roe v Wade and suppress abortion. Many conservative religious voters are one issue voters and abortion is that issue. Now that they have their court decision, what other Trump policies can be explained away to a morally driven audience?

Abortion may turn out to be a double whammy for the GOP if this is the case. They are already getting hammered by the issue, even in red states, as women express their outrage at having their personal rights taken away, exercising that outrage when they are in the voting booth.

We can be sure Biden and the Democrats will not let that story go. And the House inaction on a border bill, widely seen to be exactly what they wanted, is not a good look for them, and their leader. Trump has taken personal credit for that inaction to avoid giving Biden anything resembling a win.

Now the border and immigration, the most charged issue for Trump voters, may turn out to work against them. Their inaction may be giving the issue to Biden and he is taking it. In the first federal election this year, replacing Rep George Santos, the border issue led to an eight point Democratic victory in a close race.

Then there is the impending government shutdown which they have done nothing about, instead going on a two week vacation as shutdown looms only days after their return to DC. Given their partisan inability to do anything, it seems extremely likely that there will be a shutdown.

Not only will that give Biden another arrow in his quiver, any last minute attempt to resolve it would probably result in their leader Mike Johnson’s firing by the far right Freedom Caucus, whose stated goal is to shut down and cripple the federal government.

The mess in the House, and Trump’s direct responsibility for it, is unlikely to sit well with rich donors, who would lose money if the government goes bankrupt, a likely scenario. That may also explain the money drying up.

It’s my assumption that there is a lot of talk behind the scenes in the Party about these issues. Republicans desperately need strong leadership, both in Congress and within their national committee. But Trump has already installed his stooges in Congress and is now pushing for his daughter-in-law Lara Trump to run the RNC, a loyalist with no track record of anything other than loyalty to Trump.

And being married to Eric Trump, a certified business genius who helped run the Trump Organization into the ground.

You don’t have to be a political pundit to see this as both a mess and a major problem for Republicans. Lara Trump last week stated that under her leadership, every single resource would be directed to electing her father-in-law, leaving all the rest of the Party down ticket in financial limbo.

She tried to walk that back, sort of, but that sounded empty to those Republican candidates down to the local level, possibly eroding support for the Trump wing of the Party, and maybe the fearless leader.

If I’m a billionaire or a major lobbyist, I’m likely to be looking at the long term future of the Party, the entire Party. It’s quite obvious to an amateur observer like me that Trump only lives for the limelight now, not next week, month, or years. His legal mess should tell us all that.

Call me the cautious optimist but in politics, especially in a presidential election year, you have to follow the money. Trump is hemorrhaging it both personally and politically and the view of him as a savvy businessman has been trashed by the courts. He is notorious for refusing to pay for any of his bills.

Now the Republicans and their national committee may be learning just how ingrained that is. They started paying his bills and he is not going to be happy if they stop. 

Watch the money race. Right now Joe Biden is winning that race, polls be damned.

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~ I write The Grasshopper, a letter for creatives, The Witness Chronicles, a place for my articles on politics and climate, and The Remarkable, a recovery letter, about my addiction and reentry experience. All are weekly and free, however this is how I live and I strongly believe all writers and creatives should get paid, if we provide value. Your upgrade to a paid subscription helps make that happen. 

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