The Witness Chronicles December 27, 2023
A pragmatic view of American politics, global issues, and climate change
The subtitle above can be considered the synopsis of changes coming to this publication in 2024. I actually wrote the year as 2024 when I typed the title just now, perhaps a subconscious desire to get past 2023, although I’m not sure I should be so eager, given the state of the world.
Since inception, the Witness Chronicles has been an extension of my writing newsletter, The Grasshopper. You subscribed to Grasshopper and this came as a kind of bonus, a weekly digest of articles I had published recently on Medium where they were behind a paywall.
I’m still working through the logistics of it all but next week will see the transition to this being its own newsletter with its own subscribers. You won’t be automatically subscribed as I would not presume that was what you wanted, but there will be the option to add a subscription or move from The Grasshopper if you’re so inclined.
So, basically, both will continue but as independent pubs. The reasons have much to do with where we are politically in this coming year, conditions at Medium, which are increasingly erratic, and my desire to have a home for my opinion and observation writing that lives or dies on its own.
I typically write 4-7 articles on the topical subjects per week and publish to Medium as I write them, sometimes daily, and I will now be doing the same here. I’m making these changes because my stuff is often time and context sensitive commentary on events happening now, in real time.
I want them to be read in that context.
It is impossible to predict where 2024 will go but everything points to an absolutely bonkers news year with the US presidential election (!), the potential for global conflict, and the reality of climate change.
Climate is the wild card in this mix and even after years of science warnings and the experience of huge changes, I do not see a world prepared for or even preparing for its impact, which is here.
2023 has not only been the warmest year on record globally, it is showing us that climate change is accelerating beyond any predictions. We literally cannot project what the world and our place in it will look like five years out.
My big challenge as an observer and writer is to find the linkage between domestic and international politics and these changes and to point out where we have tipping points, often in unexpected places.
Two examples stand out and they are closely related. One is the seemingly mundane topic of home insurance, that bulwark against losing one’s largest asset for most people. The industry woke up a few years ago and realized there are huge portions of the country where insuring homes cannot be profitable no matter how much they charge.
Major insurers are pulling out of many unstable regions and it is drastically altering the dynamics of home ownership and where people choose to live. These changes will change everything from cost of living to political party power geographically.
The second topic, completely related, is climate relocation, the movement to regions that are safer and more stable places to settle. I call these climate islands and I happen to live in one, Western NY, an unlikely destination for those who fear climate catastrophes.
If you had told me a few years ago that I would be writing about insurance, I would have laughed you out of the room. But in a western capitalist society like the US, it represents the most pragmatic reaction possible to climate change.
Because it is no longer profitable, it becomes unavailable and that cascades to people relocating to regions where it is, all because an actuarial table told management it was time to pull the plug.
Who’d a thunk it?
That combination of events is just one example of why The Witness Chronicles needs its own place and subscriber list. In my mind this is a story that must be told for me to maintain a bit of my sanity in an increasingly unstable world.
I hope when you get the notice from me you’ll consider taking a minute and signing up for the new improved Witness. There will be a paid tier as this is work, work I need to do, but work that I nevertheless also need to get paid for.
In the meantime, as 2023 moves into the past, I offer an observation on the economy in China, predictions for January ‘24 in DC, and why the 2024 election is not a replay of 2020.
Thanks for taking some time to indulge me!
Martin Edic
Strange Doings in China’s Economy
It’s going dark and that’s not good
CNN’s excellent newsletter on China, Meanwhile in China, has a story about prominent Chinese economists and business analysts disappearing after they mention any bad news about the economy. It’s hard not to see this as very bad news for that economy if the government feels it must silence anyone actually doing their job and telling their own people how bad it is.
But it is also very bad news for the rest of the world and particularly the US, because our economies are still heavily integrated. The Biden administration has rightly been working to disengage after the supply chain debacle that froze both economies during the Chinese lockdown.
But silencing any criticism from Chinese experts is an extremely crude strategy (kill the messenger) for handling bad news. Chinese supreme leader Xi Jinping seems to think that hiding bad news is possible, which ignores that close linkage between China’s fortunes and those of the rest of the world.
The financial world lives and dies on information and is extremely efficient at getting and transmitting it. Disappearing prominent financial experts because they simply did their jobs looks like a very bad sign of how far things have declined.
Xi came out of the Maoist/collectivist past, a past which nearly destroyed their economy. But openings in that economy saw phenomenal growth as China reconnected to the global systems, drawing international manufacturing at levels never before seen.
Now it seems Xi intends to withdraw by withholding information from the world, which is impossible. These are not the days of Mao and a China wholly cut off from the world. This kind of repression seems to indicate leadership that is living and retreating into a past that no longer exists.
In the past year we have seen how they built a huge reliance on speculative real estate development, that became a monstrous bubble which predictably burst, taking an estimated 30% of the economy with it. The business leaders responsible for this calamity have been steadily disappearing into China’s opaque legal system.
Meanwhile, China is building an enormous military. The question is how are they funding it and what will they do with it. Military spending can drive an economy but it produces no long lasting markets beyond the military, at least not in a state that punishes success or failure in global markets.
I’m no economist (I hope that’s not too obvious) but this seems to me to tell us that we should be extracting ourselves out of any reliance on Chinese manufacturing, something the Biden administration has been pursuing.
But that is a tough one when China represents a huge market and we, in turn, are their largest market, or should be.
The other news is that China’s actual largest trading partner right now is Putin’s Russia, an economy held together by corruption and a tyrannical government openly planning to grow by attacking sovereign nations.
Fortunately that has not gone so well for them. But we have to wonder if a desperate Xi may try to jumpstart his economy through military takeovers? It’s a terrifying scenario at best and one of several out there now that could start another global war.
The Middle East is destabilizing rapidly because of the Hamas/Israel conflict with Houthi rebels backed by Iran effectively stopping shipping from going through the region. American far right politics are blocking aid to Ukraine and giving Putin relief in the process, which encourages him to consider attacking neighboring countries.
And here in the US that same right wing seems willing to support a blatant effort to destroy democracy and create an autocracy of our own. That’s a lot of global instability.
Which makes an action like China silencing economists, who are telling the truth about what they see, an extremely ominous sign.
As an amateur observer and commentator on American politics, I can’t help but see these as interlocking events, especially during an election year when candidate Trump is no longer even pretending he wants a stable, united American democracy.
Troubling as that is, when you start linking things and the second largest economy in the world, China, seems to be veering into isolationist silence, you should be alarmed, very alarmed.
This is no longer a world where things like isolationism can be an option. It is not an option. The economy is global and like the proverbial chaos theory, the flapping of a butterfly’s wing in China can affect the political and economic weather across the globe.
January ‘24 is Going To Be Insane in DC
A do nothing GOP House runs into a functioning (sort of) Senate. We all lose.
The Presidential primaries start. The Supreme Court decides if Trump can be on the ballot. Trump deals with endless trial issues. Oh yeah, and Joe Biden tries to thread the needle with both Israel and Ukraine.
Then there are two deadlines to keep the government running, January 19 and February 2. Meanwhile the entire congress is out for holiday recess for the first week or two.
I don’t care if you are a Democrat, Republican, liberal, MAGA, progressive, or moderate, this is the worst set of problems faced in my long lifetime and all of it comes down to one group, the Freedom Caucus, and one leader, Mike Johnson, a religious fanatic with no experience managing his unruly horde.
They have passed 27 laws in the past year compared to 202 in the previous Democrat-controlled House, indicating a totally dysfunctional group who obviously don’t give a damn about the country or our future.
They think empty investigations with no evidence supporting them are governing. It’s not, it’s politicking, petty politicking. It should sicken the average American, but it doesn’t seem to.
The year ahead, unpredictable as it will be, shows us a fundamental change in the American voter. They are not paying attention to most issues and paying too much attention to a few things they see daily, like gas prices. Which, by the way, have gone down every week for months.
One thing Trump, Fox, and the GOP has done very successfully is implant a distrust of news and media as a means of covering up for actions that would have outraged voters only a few years ago.
The result is acceptance of statements echoing the words of hate-filled tyrants like Adolf Hitler, as we have seen repeatedly in recent months. The constant repetition of hate speech is designed to make it an acceptable Constitutional right, as the same party chips away at the same Constitution they use to justify their actions.
This January will see the rhetoric of fear turned up to eleven, especially on immigration, specifically non-white immigration. It is to the Republicans’ benefit to keep yelling for needed change while doing nothing but keeping the issue front and center.
Immigration is a very serious problem with no simple solution that will satisfy everyone. But this Congress does not do serious problems. To do so would require compromise and these days to compromise is to be ostracized by the right and their leaders.
My way or the highway. Sounds very macho but the reality is a stalemate in which nothing happens until all hell breaks loose. We do nothing on an issue like funding Ukraine, they fall, Putin is empowered, and more wars break out. Or a deadline comes and goes, the government here is bankrupted and hundreds of thousands lose jobs and services.
And House Members like Gaetz, MTG, Johnson, Comer, Jordan and the rest declare a great victory. Victory over what, the American people?
This can happen before we even get out of the first month of the year. There is only one way out of this cycle of fear, hate, and addiction to power. Those who do nothing must go in November. If they will go, another huge issue.
We have a culture where there is no grace in losing legitimately, just as there is no honor in compromise for the benefit of the greater good. The Me Generation has truly won, at least for now.
It is a strange time when words like honor, trust, and civility are viewed with disdain and seen as signs of weakness. It all flows back to one man who fears those ideals and who has never lived them. He now no longer even pretends to believe in America, instead referring to the people he wants to serve as vermin.
Today we learn that Trump and Rona McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, had a call that was recorded with those certifying 2020 election results in Wisconsin. They were pressuring committee members to not sign off on Trump losing. Then this happened (from Newsweek):
“McDaniel reportedly told the attorneys: "If you can go home tonight, do not sign it...We will get you attorneys."
This is a bribe attempt, blatant and on the record, by McDaniel. We already know she is not the brightest light in the Party, which is probably why they chose her for a leadership role (they don’t like actual leaders). But now she appears to have committed a felony, on the record.
It is hard to understand why Americans do not seem to be outraged when they see actual video or audio evidence of felonies by Republicans. And, as a result, those Republicans seem to think evidence means nothing. But it does and it will catch up to them.
There are good things going on in the country. Infrastructure is being rebuilt in all fifty states, creating jobs, and manufacturing here is now cost effective while wages rise. Alternative energy is now profitable and its expansion is booming. The economy has made an amazing rebound from fears of recession to record market gains.
These are real things, but we are told they are fake; conspiracies to support paranoid fantasies like socialism, which is virtually nonexistent in actual reality here.
So, one month packing in what used to be a year of political news. And another eleven months that promise to be equally tumultuous. American voters are already exhausted, but there is a simple solution:
Kick these people out of power with your vote and uphold the rule of law. And tell the do-nothings we are fed up.
Replaying 2020 in 2024 is a Terrible Idea
And enough with the ‘Trump smells’ meme
It’s not quite January yet and we are already drifting into weird politics and strange bedfellows. First, I need to get this ‘Trump smells’ thing off my chest. Normally I get a kick out of The Lincoln Projects’ comic attack ads calling out the various insanities of Mr Trump.
But this week they released a cheap shot ad based on the rumor that Trump has a strange body odor, by stringing together stock footage of garbage dumps, horse poop, piles of trash, moldy cheese, and other smelly things, then linking them to Trump, with a minimal voiceover implying he stinks.
Maybe he does, but this has nothing to do with governing, running, or even his mindless rants, like his Christmas greeting apparently rewritten in hell. I don’t care if he stinks because I’ll never be anywhere near him and hopefully he will disappear by the end of the year, as his troubles and craziness devolve into the muck of history.
The ad is stupid. Though I am fully aware that it is designed to infuriate him and cause him to get even more haywire. Rumors say it has been effective with this. But this childish baiting is only going to solidify the MAGA belief that Democrats and RINOs are privileged jerks.
Moving on. Also this week I found myself in agreement with Senator Lindsay Graham, something that is almost painful to admit. Graham predicted that if Trump cannot let go of his 2020 obsession and start talking about the future, he will lose.
The people who believe the 2020 election was stolen already are with him, despite the mountains of evidence and an avalanche of indictments proving the entire thing was a fabrication to keep himself in power and out of jail.
He doesn’t need to convince them, but they are not enough to get him legitimately elected*. He needs to look forward. The problem is he cannot let this thing go, and that is a gift that keeps on giving for those of us who cannot stand the idea of another minute, much less four years, of this guy.
*It is quite obvious he has no intention of legitimately doing anything and will put us all through this steal stuff all over again next winter.
The problem is that Trump has no new ideas, no forward looking policies, nothing but petty revenge and retribution and retreads of his old ideas. None of which he even came close to enacting, except his tax cuts for the wealthy which added an estimated seven trillion dollars to the national deficit and are now expiring.
All of this may get turned upside down if someone like Nikki Haley starts to get close enough in the polls to force him into debates. She needs to make a choice and take the gloves off and start attacking him for real. Which it looks like she cannot do, paralyzed by the irrational fear of what will happen that grips his entire party.
What, exactly, they are afraid of is not clear. Those MAGA morons? Trump had his storm troopers. Remember the Proud Boys? They’re stewing in jail, forgotten by their fearless leader.
Prediction: Halley goes nowhere if she doesn’t find a backbone and start criticizing the reality of who and what Donald Trump really is. She knows, they all know, yet they cling to the idea that this guy is still their savior.
But their ranks of believers will shrink as court cases dominate the news, he rants his Nazi-light baloney, and someone in his party finally starts acting like a grownup.
Or maybe I’m delusional.
So, what about Biden? you say. What about him? He is making a huge mistake by not clearly disavowing Netanyahu while showing his compassion for both Israel and the Palestinian people.
His campaign is playing a long game, watching the economy improve while Trump gradually implodes, at least that seems to be the theory. It is classic old school presidential politics based on the proven idea that beating an incumbent in a rising economy is really tough.
The problem is that old school didn't include seriously strange opponents like Trump and his weird followers. Not to mention media outlets that simply make up facts they think their viewers will like. Biden is said to be struggling with why his poll numbers are so low, ignoring the obvious in the process.
About 23 years ago we changed centuries and a lot of other things changed, virtually everything changed. I know, I lived a good chunk of my life in the last century. It seems a distant memory. But Joe Biden lived a lot more in that time and he needs to let it go.
Old school no more.
By the way, Donald Trump, who still thinks this is the 1980s when he ruled the tabloids in NYC, also wants the past back. The election is the battle of the dinosaurs, both old and breathing heavily.
Watch the first few months of the coming year. If anything is going to change it has to happen early because time is running out fast. Trump shows no signs of leaving his grievances behind and Biden is hanging tough but not improving.
Someone can break this stalemate but it will require challenging either front runner in a clean break from the past. Unfortunately I don’t know who that someone might be and time is running out of the hourglass.
I’m a little behind in getting my newsletters out this week but I’ll blame that on the holidays because why not? I’m happy the holidays are nearly behind us and I’m happy that tomorrow will offer up 31 seconds more daylight. We’re getting there now!
Happy New Year,
Martin Edic
3556 words, ending the year with lots of words. Peace.
~ I write The Grasshopper, a letter for creatives, The Witness Chronicles, a weekly digest of three of my articles on politics and climate, and The Remarkable, a recovery letter, about my addiction and reentry experience. All are weekly and free with a paid option to share your support. Please check them out.
If you want to show support but don’t want to commit to a subscription, you can always buy me a coffee!
Believe me, it makes my day. M
Very perceptive and concise summing up of where we stand as this year ends and the new one begins, Martin.
Martin-
Thank you for your laser sharp focus on our biggest problems. I especially appreciate the way you are able to see the way they inter-relate. Keep up the excellent work!