The Witness Chronicles, August 18, 2024
Immigration and inflation, the numbers are dropping
Inflation and Immigration: The Numbers Are Changing
And they are in Kamala Harris’s favor, sort of
The two biggest issues in this election are both seeing new numbers and they should be very good news for the Harris/Walz ticket. Inflation unexpectedly ticked down and applications for asylum at the southern border have dropped from a peak of 5000 a day to less than 2000.
The only catch to this is, is anyone paying attention? Numbers rarely change voters’ minds, they need to feel the changes. And when you have an opponent who is willing to openly lie and make up his own version of ‘facts’, it’s no wonder we are not seeing this celebrated by Democrats.
One example this week was a photo of empty beds at a border refugee facility that is no longer needed. It was an overcrowded nightmare just months ago before Biden issued an executive order limiting the number of asylum cases we would accept, an action House Republicans voted to kill after getting their orders from Trump.
The photo is legit, but these days anyone can claim otherwise, that it is fake, not a real facility, etc. It’s no wonder actual facts and stats are viewed with suspicion.
Biden’s immigration order was an end run around the Republican intransigence and, surprisingly, it worked. The issue is certainly not fixed but things are far more manageable since the order was issued. And no, South America is not emptying its prisons and mental health institutions into the US, regardless of what Trump says and the news media seems to ignore.
So, yes, the numbers are way down but can Harris capitalize on it? She has two chances, one at next week’s Democratic National Convention and another at her September 10th debate with Trump.
The inflation numbers are an even bigger challenge because the numbers people really pay attention to are food and gas prices and they are only partially affected by inflation. We’re still in recovery from the Covid pandemic that upended world markets and supply chains and gas prices have always been at the whim of the oil companies who have been enjoying astronomical profits for several years.
So, while the news on inflation is that it is steadily decreasing, it can be hard to make political hay out of the numbers. The other related number coming out in September is whatever reduction the Fed comes up with on interest rates. Will they cut them and by how much? The markets now think they will and it may be by more than expected earlier.
A half point would be a lot but a half point is hardly going to ring bells for undecided voters. Running on numbers is a wonk’s job and only other numbers wonks will listen.
What does change things is an almost indiscernible change in the air, the feeling that things may be getting better, and that may be beginning. But with eighty days till the election, the question is, will enough voters catch a whiff of that hope to affect our choices at the ballot box?
This week the Democrats have their nominating convention, though Harris has already been chosen by early vote. But what we will see is a verification of the party’s unity behind Harris and Walz, with speakers representing different regions and points of view unifying around a message that looks to the future.
Meanwhile Trump and Vance are keeping their barrage of negativity and lies, even as many in their party are finding it a tired and tiring message. Trump in particular seems to get more and more unhinged with every attempt to talk about normal issues.
Yesterday, in a speech promoted as being about the economy, he almost immediately ditched the teleprompter and went on yet another insult fest, calling his opponents stupid communists. Though he had a full room at the start, reports are that many left during the rant.
I guess if they were there expecting some kind of sanity they soon realized it wasn’t coming. The sad reality is that Donald Trump has no actual positive message that makes any sense, knows it, and can only revert to his now tired invective.
All the numbers are turning against him and it is likely the Democrats will get another boost this week as the public sees their message of a positive future every night next week. This may be yet another turning point in this crazy election year.
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