The Witness Chronicles, April 16, 2024

Trials and tribulations for Trump

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Is Trump’s Campaign Effectively on Hold?

Two or more months of court appearances

The first day of Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan did not go well for the former President, the first to face a criminal trial.

He apparently fell asleep in court, nodding off and ignoring a note from his attorney. The man is seventy-seven years old, does not look healthy, and seems to get little sleep, based on his middle of the night postings on Truth Social. And he spent the weekend campaigning in friendly spots and made his usual cuckoo remarks, this time a rambling talk about the Battle of Gettysburg where he called it, among other things, ‘beautiful’ and horrible.

In that one day battle, a turning point, over 50,000 lives were lost. Not exactly beautiful by any standard.

We are only one day in and he is already having a hard time in court. And the judge has been very clear that missing a court day could send him to jail. He has to sit there four days a week, possibly for months.

Yesterday began jury selection, working their way through a pool of 500 jurors. Nearly fifty disqualified themselves immediately saying they could not be impartial. A dozen more went on to filling out a long questionnaire but none were selected. They need twelve jurors and six alternates, for a total,of eighteen.

Given Trump’s unpopularity in the city he grew up in, this could be a very long process, taking weeks before the trial even begins. It would be a tough slog for the best of us, but this one promises to be very ugly and the stakes are far higher than media like the New York Times will admit.

His support among women, already in trouble over his conflicted abortion stance, will likely erode as we hear the entire tawdry story of his covering up payments to a porn star and Playboy model over affairs. The affairs were not illegal, but hiding those payments was election interference during his first presidential campaign.

That is the alleged crime and it encompasses over thirty counts, each of which could result in prison if convicted. That’s a pretty heavy load for anyone and nodding off in court after a likely sleepless night is not a good sign.

This is a stamina issue, both physically and mentally, and we are only on day two. Trump asserts that he will appear in court during the day and campaign at night, flying around to court voters. We know he portrays himself as a superman, but that schedule would exhaust a thirty year old. And this trial is just a fraction of the stress he faces.

It could effectively put his campaign on hold for months, display his health and mental issues, eroding support, and adding to his already untenable financial problems.

On that note, the California company backing his $175 million bond to deal with existing fines during appeals, has until end of day today (4/16/24) to show that the bond is viable. It may well not be legal in NYS. The company backing it is essentially a loan shark operation profiting from giving very high interest car loans to those with poor credit. Not exactly a triple A lender.

Political junkies like myself are scrambling to keep up with the daily or more than daily serious issues the man faces, and we are just watchers. Living them would be an almost incomprehensible burden for the healthiest of humans.

As an illustration of how these events pile up, Trump’s attempt to issue millions more shares of his recent Truth Social media IPO, resulted in the shares dropping by over 15% yesterday. The issuing reflects Trump desperate need to monetize the shares he holds to replenish his cash coffers which appear to be relatively empty.

The cynicism of this, which dilutes further the investments made by his most fervent supporters, seems to be another emerging negative as they realize his machinations are costing them big time. Let the buyer be aware, but for them this may be too late.

Meanwhile his legal bills mount.

Then we get to the subject of polling, the most ridiculous media exercise possible seven months before the election. The media treats these things like they are oracles, even though the best they indicate for either candidate is a dead heat. They are meaningless.

But, if this trial puts Trump’s campaign on hold while highlighting some serious problems he has, that polling will be even more meaningless. We really have no idea how all this will affect the opinions of voters because those opinions will be changing on a daily basis. But when they change they often stay changed and I don’t buy the idea that Trump nodding off in court is a long term bonus for his campaign.

You’ll note that I have not mentioned Joe Biden. He has been dealing with some small issues, including a burgeoning war between Israel and Iran, Ukraine, and a host of presidential stuff, you know, governing. And he is actively campaigning, helped by his extensive ground operation, an operation Trump apparently does not have in place.

Ground operations do much of the behind the scenes heavy lifting in national campaigns and without one the Trump campaign could fall behind, especially when the candidate is absentee and trapped in a courthouse.

All of this is unprecedented and its effects unknown. We have never seen a campaign scream to a halt under circumstances like these. And neither have those pollsters or those they call and survey.

With variables like these, all bets are off.

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