The Witness Chronicles, April 1, 2024
Apathy and civil war in congress
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Voter Apathy and Burnout: Is It Distorting the Numbers?
The volume and the violence are exhausting
It’s only the first of April, and no, unfortunately, this is not a prank. We are only three months into a momentous election year, one that could determine the future of our democracy, and the campaigning has been exhausting.
The question is, how much does early voter burnout affect polling and will we start paying closer attention as the year goes on? Having lived through many Presidential elections, including some very contentious ones, this year seems to already be on hyperdrive, with major news stories dropping every day.
This is made far worse by the Trump motor mouthing and his campaign’s heavy handed use of fear and threats to mobilize voters. This weekend Trump posted on social media dozens of times in just two hours one morning and every post was laced with his typical extreme outrage and yelling, via all caps, about the injustices being done to him.
An article in the Washington Post details how the Trump campaign first raised huge small donor donations through email campaigns that sent dozens of emails daily to his lists, many implying desperation or even threatening the recipients if they didn’t donate.
That initially worked extremely well, but in the Trump worldview if some is good, more is better, and they went to that well so much they started turning off the flow, as people simply got sick of the barrage.
Another headline in the Post today reads ‘The Trump Trials: The Calm Before the Stormy’, referencing the Stormy Daniels coverup trial that begins April 15, the first of Trump’s criminal trials and possibly the only one that we see before the election.
This case is less serious for Trump compared to the others but it will be deliciously salacious with the porn star, a Playboy bunny, and Trump’s bagman Attorney Michael Cohen testifying about all the gory details. We will also see the notorious pussy grabbing video from the first election introduced as evidence.
If this is not enough, Trump will be there in court four days a week for six to eight weeks. We can expect a torrent of outrage that should get worse and he is forced to fidget and rave day after day in court and outside. Like that barrage of emails demanding money, Trump will undoubtedly increase the volume as the trial progresses. The pundits think this will increase his support.
I have a different view. He is going to push the American public to a breaking point where many might say, we need to end this circus and get back to whatever normal is.
Or we may simply change the channel.
There is a lot going on in the world these days and most of it is bad. Climate change, the Israel/Palestine conflict and it’s possible spread through the middle east, Ukraine, and the crisis at borders across the planet. The shear volume of things to take in is a recipe for burnout.
Outrage is a limited resource. Few can sustain it at the level of a Donald Trump. Most of us know the parable of the Boy Who Cried Wolf so much that no one was listening when the real wolf showed up. We may be at a ‘cry wolf one too many times’ moment for many.
And a lot of these important stories are complex, with many twists and turns, and they are evolving daily. I tried to do a broad overview of one this weekend about the civil war brewing in the Republican Congress (next article below), with limited success. The story literally changes hourly and simply keeping track of names and changes boggle the mind.
Every one of these issues is equally complex and unless you are a news junkie (guilty), it is easier to simply ignore most of it, or just pick one side or another, as in Gaza, when nothing about it is simple or clearly good or evil.
So, the theory here is voter apathy in the face of too much outrage, too much bad news, and too much campaigning. The question is, as the year heats up and Election Day draws near, will voters start really paying attention again? It may very well be that this happens very near the end as the need to make a choice becomes a reality.
It appears that the Biden campaign realizes this and held off on saturating us with ads and pitches, while Trump piled on and the courts started piling on him. We’ve only seen Biden attacking since his State of the Union, which attracted record viewers and shocked many of his opponents by showing him as a power.
But there is another wrinkle in the Biden strategy. Even when he attacks, he does so with a smile, taking a mocking approach to Trump that seems calculated to get directly to his ego. Biden looks like he is enjoying himself, which is a marked difference from the Trump constant litany of outrage and victimhood.
Over time, normal might very well win over abnormal. Post Covid, the concept of normal has changed drastically and there is a pent up desire to return to a life not entirely filled with catastrophes. That appears to be the basis of the Biden approach. Emphasize the positive.
It appears he has quite a bit to work with while Trump is entirely focused on his personal problems and seems disinterested in actual governing. It really does seem to come down to a battle between the positive and the negative in general.
It is hard to sustain outrage for months, especially as constant court appearances and witnesses contradict much of Trump’s claims to be the victim of a vast conspiracy. The question is whether Trump is capable of pivoting and whether anyone cares.
My bet is that as the election nears, the numbers will start moving in Biden’s direction, possibly just from fatigue with the constant negative. But one big question remains: Have voters simply checked out and turned to apathy?
There is a Civil War Going On in the Republican Party
It’s conservatives vs. far right Trumpers
The Trump strategy of division is creating repercussions across the party and it’s getting ugly. And the Democrats are sitting back and watching the show, waiting for a fatal mistake. Just another week in 2024.
If we divert our attention from the antics of Donald Trump, there is plenty to see within his party as Freedom Caucus members in the House turn on each other and mainstream conservatives are openly questioning Mike Johnson and Trump’s do-nothing strategy.
Do nothing on Ukraine. Do nothing on the border and immigration. Do nothing on anything. But the politicians who actually came here to govern are starting to question the intentional emptiness of this Congress, the least functional in decades. Not only are members leaving in disgust, at least 23 so far, those who are staying are realizing they don’t have much to bring back to their constituents as the election season heats up.
Even ultra right winger Chip Roy from Texas, said what many think, that he needs something to brag about, and that happened months ago. That statement ignored the fact that, as a Freedom Caucus obstructionist, he is part of the problem he complains about.
Very Trumpian logic on his part.
But now GOP representatives are openly breaking with each other over everything from Mike Johnson’s Speaker role to Ukraine. Meanwhile their majority is a hair's breadth away from disappearing. No one can get sick, have a personal emergency, or abruptly announce they are leaving. Any of those events gets the House precariously close to even.
The Democrats are watching and making noises about helping Johnson avoid getting kicked to the curb by grandstander Marjorie Taylor Greene. If Johnson aligns himself with Dems to get Ukraine aid, for example, as he did with the recent budget deal, there will be open warfare within the Party and it could happen in days.
This all, of course, is the direct effect of Trump’s lashing out at his own people. His scorched earth loyalty campaign has had the party members nervously looking over their shoulders and trusting no one. I often think about how historians will have to track the trends in this election year day by day as we see constant changes. Or hour by hour.
Meanwhile the Dems are remarkably united and watching with barely suppressed glee. But that glee is tempered by frustration over the failure to pass aid for Ukraine, aid that has popular support and Republican support among the sane. The insane seem to think aligning themselves with Vladimir Putin is somehow going to help them.
I could get into the nitty gritty of the infighting but, to be honest, it’s really tricky sorting it all out despite reading multiple accounts from journalists of the ‘he said she said’ attacks. I read one blow by blow from CNN and my brain said hey, this is Sunday, just chill out.
Part of the reason for this is the shifting stories of what will or won’t happen when the House reconvenes this week. Ukraine looms despite Trump’s willingness to hand them to the Russians. Everyone agrees that the border situation is beyond desperate, but once again the Trump faithful are blocking the aid they wanted, just to spite Joe Biden.
Speaking of Biden, he seems to be having a great time campaigning, reminding us that the man is a savvy politician in his element and fully capable of being a relentless attack dog. Trump is giving him plenty of ammunition, firing off dozens of posts on Truth Social in just two hours this morning.
Nothing drives the right more crazy than seeing Biden smiling and raising money hand over fist and taking glee in the self-inflicted wounds Donald Trump can’t seem to avoid. All he would have to do is hold back his impulses, but we now know he simply cannot keep his mouth shut.
And now a lot of members of his Party seem to have caught the same disease. They can’t even pretend to have a united front on anything and now they are openly feuding. Damage is being done and if someone like Greene accelerates her campaign against Johnson things will get very nasty.
My prediction is that Johnson opts for popularity and brings a Ukraine vote to the floor this week, a vote that will require that most dirty word for the right, bipartisanship.
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