The Witness Chronicles, 1/4/24
The Middle East War is Spreading Fast
As noted in the last week, this newsletter is going to appear as events I’m writing about unfold rather than just once a week. The conflict in the Middle East is escalating daily and offers a perfect example of why I’m making these publishing schedule changes.
I hope this isn’t intrusive but the year ahead requires that all of us be witnesses to history, in the hope that we are not constantly doomed to repeat our mistakes. One can hope.
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Martin Edic
It’s not just Israel and Hamas and we should be worried
Yesterday a Hamas military leader and six commanders were killed in Lebanon by a drone strike thought to be Israeli.
Iran sent a warship into the Red Sea.
Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, have been constantly attacking shipping and one of the largest shipping companies in the world, Maersk, will no longer pass through those waters, potentially causing another global supply chain crisis.
Netanyahu declared the war will go on for years as he lost a major court decision. War to him is a tool to hold onto political power and it seems lives do not matter to him and his fanatical followers. Two of those high ranked followers, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have openly called for forcing all the residents of Gaza to relocate to a distant country, possibly Congo, and Netanyahu has not repudiated these plans. An estimated 75% of Israelis want Netanyahu out of power. Only the war is keeping him in.
Illegal settlers in the West Bank have created a police state and local Palestinians have no rights in it, as tensions there reach a breaking point. The settlers are policing the area in IDF uniforms with identifying insignia removed.
In Israel mass protests are demanding Netanyahu declare a ceasefire and focus on getting the hostages out. But many news sources believe Hamas is incapable of returning all the hostages because they don’t know where they all are or can’t control those who hold them.
Hezbollah, the terrorist organization in Lebanon, has an estimated 150,000 missiles supplied by Iran.
In Iran this week, during the memorial of an Iranian leader killed by a US drone strike four years ago, a bomb or bombs killed 84 mourners.
These stories are fueled by endless rumors and interests and must be taken with a grain of salt, but one thing is obvious:
This is the definition of a powder keg ready to go off at any moment, a regional war in the making. It is also the consequence of absolutism, the belief that things must be black and white. Examples: Hamas’ constant declaration that all Jews must be exterminated. Netanyahu’s declaration that the fighting will not stop until all Hamas are exterminated.
Like all war, this is ultimately tribal, and these tribal conflicts have gone on for hundreds of years. But there is a big difference now. The scale of our ability to destroy each other is massive, driven by a weapons industry that cannot be profitable without global wars, but continues to make weapons more and more deadly and sells them to the highest bidder, regardless of their intended use.
Here in the US we are facing a highly contentious Presidential election where the US Constitution is openly threatened by a candidate facing 91 felony counts for crimes against the state.
Desperate politicians find wars are a way to take and expand political power. The potential for a war on the Middle East is a wild card in this year’s election, adding to the long list of things that could change the global balance of power for the worse.
In this new year, it is challenging to find positive news and easy to write doom and gloom stories like these. But history is full of years like this and somehow humanity wins, though often at terrible costs like those we are witnessing in Israel, Gaza and Ukraine, Sudan, and other hotspots around the planet.
Israel could change course, get rid of Netanyahu, and join in plans to rebuild the Palestinian state under new leadership. The Biden administration is promoting plans to do so and there are reports of Arab coalitions dedicated to similar plans, including Egypt, Qatar, and other nations in the region.
These are the voices of sanity and de-escalation. Unfortunately, a single event like the Hamas terror attack on October 7th, which started all this, can be enough to trigger a bigger war. Somehow this potential must be reined in because this is no longer solely about Palestine and Israel.
Note: I started this piece on Wednesday, January 3, 2024 and things have accelerated in just the last 24 hours. The Islamic State, or ISIS, took credit for the explosion at the memorial in Iran. The US and 11 other nations issued an ultimatum to the Houthi Rebels in Yemen threatening action if they don’t stop attacking shipping.
If there is any doubt that this is becoming a regional conflict, just count up all the players, interests, and actions around the Israeli conflict. And add these events to those that guarantee that 2024 is going to be a year unlike any other in this century.
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