The Witness Chronicles, 12/12/24

An American political oligarchy? Ugh

Photo by Nikolay Vorobyev on Unsplash

The Rise of the American Oligarchy

Nobody elected these guys to anything

I’ve avoided writing about Elon Musk, in part because he is such a weird combination of genius and idiot, but lately the arrogant jerk aspect of his personality is front and center. Don’t get me started on Vivek Ramaswamy, who exemplifies the ugliest side of the Silicon Valley Bro clan.

Possessing billions of dollars seems to have become a path to self-declared wisdom, greater wisdom than the rest of us. But we can’t compare wisdom with business success. One exception might be Warren Buffet, but he is one of a kind, a man whose riches have not apparently changed his values.

Musk was technically an illegal immigrant. He came here on an educational visa, which was technically revoked when he dropped out to start PayPal. Ironic, right? Now he is on the anti-immigration team and the unofficial leader of the self-serving billionaires club now firmly parked in the White House.

There is a recurring theme in American politics that says successful business leaders can do a better job governing because they will run the government like an efficient business. Except the government is not anything like a business. For one thing, there are no profits in governing, in theory.

In reality, getting elected is often a path to money, though very rarely great wealth. But the currency in DC is power and influence and now it is attracting those with more than enough money who now have discovered the allure of unfettered power. They are the new American oligarchy.

The Oxford English Dictionary defines oligarch as ‘a very rich business leader with a great deal of political influence (particularly with reference to individuals who benefited from the privatization of state-run industries after the collapse of the Soviet Union).

The would be oligarchs that Trump is surrounding himself with took a different path. They earned their fortunes, or in Trump’s case, inherited them, before getting the political power bug. To be honest Trump himself isn’t really in these guys’ league as it is doubtful he is actually a billionaire when all the debts and assets are realistically valued.

As my subtitle states we would be wise to remind voters that nobody voted for any of these rich guys. They are virtuously offering their wisdom to fix up the government by firing everybody and replacing them with a skeleton team of Trump toadies. Those people will be chosen without regard for their competence to run anything, much less the federal government of an enormous country with extraordinary needs.

As the Doge bros plan their gutting of the country, we might also remind Republican politicians from low population states like Oklahoma that in an entirely logical business world no government money would be wasted on things like highways when they only serve a tiny population.

Which brings us to that fact that governing is not anything like running a business. A successful business would be unlikely to make large investments in small markets like Oklahoma and many other red states. A mile of new highway costs the same in CA as in OK, but in CA that mile would serve millions of voters as opposed to dozens.

Add in the Trump logic that makes decisions based on retribution against those who voted against him, like Californians and New Yorkers. That Trump logic will run directly into the business logic of the Dogies, another reason business skills rarely fit well with the realities of politics.

Arrogance after acquiring great wealth will run directly into the politics of local voters and constituencies. The first time Doge ends funding for a Republican region they will slam into the reality of local politics. They may slash and burn Democratic power centers but their own people will fight back and Congress needs to approve all of the kinds of choices they want to make, including destroying vast swathes of the government.

And despite their declaration of a mandate, there is no mandate and they have razor thin leads in both the Senate and the House, leads which will fade as they try to kill political pet projects, which is where most government waste is found.

I wonder how long Elon and company will last with this as they realize how hard herding politicians and interest groups is? Elon seems to have a pretty short attention span and he is not going to be able to simply wave his genius wand and shrink the government.

The most likely outcome of this influx of billionaires is probably another huge tax cut for the very rich people which will in turn actually vastly increase the national debt they claim to want to fix. I suspect once that tax cut is passed they will fade in influence.

Maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part. But all the pronouncements from the Trump teams are largely unlikely to materialize. Certainly not before the midterms in 2026, where history tells us the Trump congressional majorities are likely to fade, leaving him and his cadre of would be oligarchs powerless.

All of this is predicated on the assumption that Trump does not declare himself a permanent leader and ends our constitutional government, as he has threatened to do. But those are empty threats that assume we would all simply accept those actions without complaint. There is certainly no reason to think anyone would think that was a good idea.

Trump’s delusions of power and grandeur are unlikely to get far if they try to go too far. They won by a thread and their power hangs by that thread.

Tired of politics? I’ve revived my personal growth newsletter, The Remarkable, as a place where I can write about some of the good stuff in life. Check it out!

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